ByZongHe

    TheprojectteamledbyPro⁃fessorZhaoNaiqingfromFudanSchoolofPublicHealthRelatedhasmadesignificantprogressine⁃xploring the linkage between airtemperatureandtheincidenceofcerebralinfarctionbyusinggene⁃ralizedadditivemodelandenviron⁃mentallateweightingmethod.Re⁃sultsoftheprojecthavebeenpub⁃lishedon“ScientificReports”re⁃cently.

    Generalizedadditivemodelhasbeenwidelyappliedtoresearchesonthelinkagebetweenenvironmentalfactorsandhealtheffects.Environ⁃

    mentalfactorsgenerallyhavelateeffectsonhealth,whichdoesnotmeantheeffectsarelateforacer⁃taindaybutadistributionofdays.Howtoconstructamodelwhichcantakeintoconsiderationtheauto⁃maticcorrelationbetweentimeandobservedvalueisoneurgentissueforresearchersonthelinkagebe⁃tweenenvironmentalfactorsandhealtheffectstotackle.

    TheprojectteamledbyZhaoNaiqing, by cooperating withShanghaiMunicipalMedicalInsur⁃anceCenter,combinedgeneralizedadditivemodelandlateeffectdis⁃tributiontoevaluatethelinkagebe⁃tweentheincidenceofcerebralin⁃

    farctionamongtheagedpeopleinShanghaiandlocalairtemperature.Themodelshowsthatwhentheav⁃eragetemperatureislowerorhigherthan27℃,theincidenceofcerebralinfarctionamongmalepopulationagedabove65willbereducedby0.95%and0.34%.Whentheaveragetemperatureislowerorhigherthan8℃,theincidenceoffemalecaseswillincreaseby0.34andreducedby0.92%.Thelateeffectofairtemper⁃atureonfemalepopulationdistrib⁃utesmuchnarrowly,withpeakvalueshowingaroundthenextdaywhilethatonmalepopulationdistributesmore widely, with peak valueshowingaroundtwodayslater.